Posts Tagged ‘Mortgage Rates’
Because of strife in Greece, Spain and North Korea, conforming mortgage rates are back to all-time lows. They’re at levels not seen in 50 years. For homeowners that missed the Refi Boom of November 2009, it’s a second chance.
In this well-presented, 3-minute video from NBC’s The Today Show, you’ll get tips getting low rates and choosing the best time to lock in.
Some of the topics covered include:
- Why were the experts wrong about rates moving higher this summer?
- How much money can you save with a 1 point drop in your interest rate?
- Should you buy a bigger home now that rates have fallen?
The advice in the piece is matter-of-fact and centered. There is no cheerleading and the message is honest. Mortgage rates are low and they likely won’t stay that way. If you’ve been thinking about a refinance, talk to your loan officer as soon as possible.
On the first Friday of every month, the U.S. government releases its Non-Farm Payrolls report.
More commonly called “the jobs report”, Non-Farm Payrolls is a major market mover. The number of working Americans is directly tied to the health of the economy which, in turn, drives the stock and bond markets.
In general, when jobs numbers improve, it’s good for stocks and bad for mortgage bonds. It follows, therefore, that conforming mortgage rates in California rise because rates always move opposite of mortgage bond prices.
Conversely, when jobs numbers worsen, it tends to be bad for stocks and good for mortgage bonds. Mortgage rates fall.
Today, markets are behaving a bit differently.
Despite 290,000 jobs created in April 2010 — nearly twice the expected amount — and a 40 percent upward revision of March’s numbers, mortgage rates are essentially unchanged.
In a normal environment, rates would be higher. Today is not normal.
Today is a departure because, for all of the jobs report’s import to Wall Street, it’s less important to markets than what’s happening in Greece right now.
Greece is struggling to meet its debt obligations and its citizens are rioting.
Until a debt solution for Greece is made that sticks, unrest in the region will drive safe haven buying both domestically and abroad. U.S. mortgage bonds will gain on that movement because mortgage bonds are “safe”, and mortgage rates will fall.
Indeed, this is exactly what’s been happening since the start of April. Mortgage markets have been rallying for 5 weeks.
So, today’s jobs news is terrific for the economy and mortgage rates should be rising because of it. But, they’re not. Consider taking advantage — lock in a rate.
Today, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-to-1 to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged, in its target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.
In its press release, the FOMC noted that the U.S. economy “has continued to strengthen” and that the jobs markets “is stabilizing”. It also said that business spending has “has risen significantly”.
This is a slight departure from the Fed’s January statement in which housing was not mentioned and business spending was said to be “picking up”.
It’s also the sixth straight statement from the FOMC in which the Fed described the economy with optimism. This is a signal to markets that 2008-2009 recession is over and that economic growth is returning.
The economy is not without threats, however, and the Fed identified several:
- High unemployment threatens consumer spending
- Housing starts are at a “depressed level”
- Consumer credit remains tight
The message’s overall tone, however, remained positive and inflation is within tolerance limits
Also in its statement, the Fed confirmed its plan to hold the Fed Funds Rate near zero percent “for an extended period” and to end its $1.25 trillion commitment to the mortgage market by March 31, 2010. Fed insiders estimate that the bond-buying program lowered mortgage rates by 1 percent since its start.
Mortgage market reaction to the Fed press release is, in general, ambivalent. Mortgage rates in Marin are unchanged this afternoon.
The FOMC’s next scheduled meeting is a 2-day affair, April 27-28, 2010.
You can’t get your mortgage rates from the newspaper. Last week proved it. Again.
Friday morning, headlines in California and around the country read that mortgage rates were down 0.04 percent, on average, since the week prior.
A sampling of said headlines includes:
- US Mortgage Rates Drop For 2nd Straight Week (Reuters)
- Mortgage Rates On 30-year US Loans Fall To 4.93% (Business Week)
- 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate Falls Farther Below 5% (Marketwatch)
The story behind the headline was sourced from the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, am industry-wide mortgage rate poll of more than 100 lenders. The PMMS has reported mortgage rate data to markets since 1971 and is the largest of its kind.
Unfortunately, Marin rate shoppers can’t rely on it.
See, unlike governments and private-sector firms, when consumers are in need mortgage rate information, they need the information delivered in real-time; for making decisions on-the-spot. Consumers need to know what rates are doing right now.
The Freddie Mac survey can’t offer that.
According to Freddie Mac, the survey’s methodology is to collect mortgage rates from lenders between Monday and Wednesday and to publish that data Thursday morning. The survey results are an average of all reported mortgage rates. The problem is that mortgage rates change all day, every day. The PMMS results are skewed, therefore, by methodology.
And, meanwhile, the issue was compounded last week because mortgage rates shot higher Wednesday afternoon — after the survey had “closed”. The market deterioration ran into Thursday, too — again, unable to be captured by Freddie Mac’s PMMS.
Although the newspapers reported mortgage rates down last week, they weren’t. Conforming mortgage rates were higher by at least 1/8 percent, or roughly $11 per $100,000 borrowed per month. In some cases, rates were up by even more.
Newspapers and websites can give a lot of good information, but pricing is far too fluid to rely on a reporter. When you need to know what mortgage rates are doing in real-time, make sure you’re talking to a loan officer. Otherwise, you may just be getting yesterday’s news.
Mortgage markets reeled Wednesday after the Federal Reserve released the minutes from its January 26-27, 2010 meeting. Mortgage rates in California are now at their highest levels since the start of the year.
The Fed Minutes is a follow-up document, delivered 3 weeks after an official FOMC meeting. It’s a companion piece to the post-meeting press release, detailing the debates and discussions that shaped our central bankers’ policy decisions.
The Minutes is a terrific look into the Fed’s collective mind and, yesterday, Wall Street didn’t like what it saw. Specifically, the report disclosed that:
- The Fed plans to break support for mortgage markets after March 31, 2010
- Raising the Fed Funds Rate will be a key part of the Fed’s strategy to tighten monetary policy
- The fundamentals behind consumer spending strengthened modestly
Furthermore, the Fed Minutes said that there is a growing risk of “higher medium-term inflation”. Inflation, of course, is awful for mortgage rates.
Overall, the Fed’s economic optimism appeared stronger after its January meeting as compared to its December one. A stronger economy should lead to better job growth and higher home prices throughout 2010.
Mortgage rates were up yesterday but they remain historically low. And many analysts think that after March 31, 2010, rates will rise even more. Therefore, if you’re buying a home in the near-term, or know you’ll need a new mortgage, consider moving up your time frame.
Every 1/8 percent makes a difference in your household budget.
The Federal Reserve just announced this morning that it would purchase $600 Billion of Mortgage-Backed Securities (often referred to as MBS) backed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae. This action is “being taken to reduce the cost and increase the availability of credit for the purchase of houses, which in turn should support housing markets and foster improved conditions in financial markets more generally,” said the statement from the Fed.
In plain English, the Fed is doing this to help increase availability of credit while lowering fixed mortgage rates. Secretary Paulson noted in his press conference this morning (which is still ongoing as I write this) that increased liquidity and lower rates in the housing market would go a long way toward stabilizing the economy. I couldn’t agree more!
In addition to purchasing the MBS debt, the Fed will set up a $200 Billion program to support consumer and small-business loans. This is specifically designed to create liquidity in the auto, small business and student loan markets.
This means consumers BIG opportunity to grab a lower rate RIGHT NOW…
The Fed’s move is already lowering mortgage rates this morning as the mortgage bonds are trading up over 100 basis points (note that prices and rates move in opposite directions…so a move UP in prices means a move DOWN in rates) which is significant. This is a GREAT opportunity for home buyers to take advantage of lower rates that we will see because of this historic move!
Stacey Fleece is a Mortgage Loan Consultant with Countrywide Home Loans in Mill Valley.