Archive for the ‘Marin Market Trends’ Category
With the holiday season approaching it’s a good time to take a look at what’s happening with the housing market in Marin County.
It was a pretty slow summer, but as you’ll see in the chart below there was a nice uptick in homes entering escrow in October, the most new pendings since the little run of activity that peaked in April. Inventory is ticking down and we would expect it to drop off dramatically in November and bottom out in December as it typically does as homes sell without being replaced by new inventory and sellers pull their properties off the market for the Holidays.
We saw a bit of a glut of inventory overall through the summer, but as you can see from this chart of months supply based on pending sales, supply and demand are closing. And this fits with what we’re seeing, as there have been few homes coming on the market the last several weeks, while buyers are still buying. Inventory could get pretty slim over the winter, which could be a good argument for sellers to buck the conventional wisdom that says you should wait for spring to bring your home on. A desirable, well-priced home can attract a lot of attention in a period with very little competition.
And here’s a look at price in dollars per square foot. I’ve limited it to homes under $3 million, since higher end luxury properties tend to skew the numbers and have been more volatile.
As you can see, Marin residential properties (under $3 million) on average have been bouncing along between about $400 and $440 per square foot for a while now. In fact if we look at a five year graph you can see the big drop in 2008, but then relative stability over the last two years.
2011 Housing Forecast *Mildly* Optimistic
The California Association of REALTORS® released its housing forecast for 2011 earlier this week. As we expected, predictions show very mild improvement overall.
“A lean supply of available homes for sale will drive prices up at the low end, but larger inventories and limited, less attractive financing will cause continued softness at the high end. There’s some indication that lenders will accelerate the number of foreclosures coming on market, further adding to the housing supply, but we do not anticipate that lenders will flood the market with distressed properties,” said Leslie Appleton-Young, CAR’s Chief Economist.
We anticipate that recovery to be very location and price specific in Marin. In September 2010, the number of Marin homes on the market was up 16.6% over September 2009, while sales were down 11.6%. Sales were down almost 15% from the same time period two years ago.
All County Marin County Sales
As we drill down into price ranges you can see the numbers shift pretty dramatically, as we look at homes sold under one million dollars versus above one million.
Marin County Home Sales Under One Million
Marin County Home Sales Over One Million
We don’t expect to see a major shift in these trends as we head into 2011. Homes under one million continue to move as buyers move in to the county, taking advantage of low interest rates. Many homeowners who would traditionally move up to larger houses are staying put. We are starting to see more pre-foreclosures in the upper end, and expect more in 2011. CAR’s predictions are in line with what we expect–sluggish prices and more options in the upper end with continued movement in the lower price ranges.
What does this mean for home sellers? Well, that depends! We hate to say that, but it really does depend on your area, home condition, and how you price it. We are still seeing the occasional multiple offer situation. Home buyers are picky and expect homes to be in prime condition unless they are a foreclosure situation. Proper preparation and pricing are crucial.
What does this mean for home buyers? Historically low interest rates and low home prices can make it a great time to buy for people with the means to do so, especially those buying for the long term. And for the first time in many years we’re seeing some possible “deals” where numbers actually make sense for investors to buy in Marin.
Considering making a move? Contact us to discuss the best options for you.
90 Mill Valley Real Estate Market Statistics
| 90-day stats for Single Family properties in MILL VALLEY, CA94941 as of October 7, 2011 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Median List Price: | $1,039,192 | Average List Price: | $1,403,263 |
| Total Inventory: | 121 | Price per Square Foot: | $510 |
| Average Home Size: | 2,259 | Median Lot Size: | 9,136 |
| Average # Beds: | 3.44 | Average # Baths: | 2.75 |
| Homes Absorbed: | 8 | Newly Listed: | 7 |
| Days on Market: | 122 | Average Age: | 51 |
View all active Mill Valley homes for sale.
Interested in learning more about Marin County price trends, supply and demand and leading indicators to help you make educated real estate decisions? Get our weekly Marin Real Estate Market Report.
If you are unable to see the video above, please click here
According to the the National Association of Realtors®, “distressed homes” represented nearly 2 of every fifth home sold in January 2010. Clearly, real estate investors in Marin County and around the country are taking advantage of good deals on inexpensive property. But there’s risk involved.
This NBC Today Show interview first ran in March 2009, featuring real estate expert Barbara Corcoran. Despite its age, the message remains relevant. Today may be a terrific time to buy a bank-owned home — just make sure you do your research first. There’s plenty of ways for investors to get burned.
Some of the tips in the video include:
- Buy in your own backyard
- Start small, then build to a bigger portfolio
- Watch receipts — rent rolls don’t matter if tenants aren’t paying rent
Corcoran also gives pointers on how to evaluate a prospective tenant.
Foreclosures may represent a significant number of 2010′s total Marin County home sales and will offer interesting opportunities to bona fide real estate investors.
Remember, the stats and the data are from 12 months ago, but the advice stays meaningful.
In this video, California Association of REALTORS economist Leslie Appleton Young speaks to agents but it is good information for everyone. A couple of takeaways:
- Median home price in California has plummeted because of foreclosures.
- The California real estate market bottomed in 2007. Sales have increased dramatically in the last two years.
- The dollar volume of sales will have bottomed this year. It will be flat in 2010.
- Statewide numbers aren’t as important as local data (Follow my Marin market statistics!)
- If the government does not put more policies in place to put people to work and fuel job growth, the recession will go on for quite some time.
If you are unable to see the video, please click here
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Marin County Homes Sales Statistics, April 2009
| Marin County Home Sales | Apr 08 | Apr 09 | % Change |
| For Sale | 833 | 900 | 8% |
| Sold | 141 | 104 | -26.2% |
| Pending | 142 | 141 | -0.7% |
*Marin County Single Family Residential Home Sales
Are you a Marin real estate junkie? Sign up to receive very detailed real-time market reports in your email. Just register and let me know which neighborhoods you are interested in. Download a sample report.
*Report published May. 2009, based on data available at the end of Apr. 2009. Data provided by Bay Area Real Estate Information Services, Inc. Neither the Associations nor their MLSs guarantee or are in anyway responsible for their accuracy. Data maintained by the Associations or their MLSs may not reflect all real estate activities in the market. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
This is reprinted with permission from an email sent to my company, Alain Pinel, by Alain Pinel Owner/CEO Paul Hulme.
Did you read the editorial in yesterday’s paper?
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THE AWFUL UNCERTAINTY OF THE FUTURE It is a gloomy moment in history. Not in the lifetime of any man who reads his paper has there been so much grave and deep apprehension; never has the future seemed so dark and incalculable. In France, the political cauldron seethes and bubbles with uncertainty. England and the English Empire is being sorely tried and exhausted in a social and economic struggle, with turmoil at home and uprising of her teeming millions in her far-flung Indian Empire. The United States is beset with racial, industrial and commercial chaos – drifting, we know not where. Russia hangs like a storm cloud on the horizon of Europe – dark and silent. It is a solemn moment, and no man can feel indifference, which happily no man pretends to feel in the issue of events. Of our own troubles, no man can see the end……….. |
This editorial sounds pretty gloomy, doesn’t it? The writer evidently was weighted down by present problems and quite ready to sell our Nation short. Did I say “present problems”? Excuse me, please. No, far from it. This editorial appeared before 9/11, Vietnam, before the Korean conflict, before World War II, before the Depression of 1929, before the First World War in 1914, before the Panic of 1891, before the Civil War in 1865.
It was an editorial in Harper’s Weekly – October 10, 1857. One hundred and fifty-two years ago! Yes, our country is going through difficult economic times, but hang in there. And remember, “The race goes not always to the swift nor to the strong, but to those who endure to the end.”
This, too, shall pass.
This market profile is a snapshot of what is happening in San Rafael. San Rafael home prices in the 94903 zip code have continued to trend down in recent weeks while home prices in the 94901 zip code have stayed flat. While the listing inventory in San Rafael has been decreasing, days-on-market has been increasing. The Market Action Index has been basically flat, not providing a strong indication of the direction of the San Rafael real estate market.
San Rafael Real Estate Market Update
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There are currently 180 homes for sale in San Rafael, California. There are 41 San Rafael homes under contract. |
||
| Area- Zip Code |
94901 |
94903 |
| Median List Price | $889,500 | $699,000 |
| Highest Priced San Rafael Home (single family) |
$4,500,000 349 Bay Way, San Rafael |
$6,500,000 1677 Lucas Valley Rd, San Rafael |
| Lowest Priced San Rafael Home (single family) |
$375,000 |
$379,900 842 Rincon Way, San Rafael |
| Asking Price per Square Foot | $450 | $407 |
| Average Days on Market | 126 | 149 |
| Percent of Properties with Price Decrease | 39% | 49% |
| Percent Relisted | 9% | 2% |
| Median House Size (sq ft) | 2,047 | 1,833 |
| Median Lot Size | 8,001-10,000 Sq. Feet | 8,001-10,000 Sq. Feet |
| Median Number of Bedrooms | 3.8 | 4.0 |
| Median Number of Bathrooms | 2.4 | 2.0 |
| Market Action Index | 14- Cold! Buyer’s Market | 15- Cold! Buyer’s Market |
The Market Action Index answers the question:
“How’s the San Rafael Real Estate Market?”
By measuring the current rate of sale versus the amount of inventory.
Index above 30 implies seller’s market conditions.
Below 30, conditions favor the buyer.
San Rafael Real Estate Market Data effective as of February 15, 2009. Data provided by AltosResearch and Bay Area Real Estate Information Services, Inc. Are you a Marin real estate junkie? Sign up to receive very detailed real-time market reports in your email. Just register and let me know which neighborhoods you are interested in. Download a sample report.