Blog by the Bay » Marin Market Trends

Inventory of Homes in Marin Keeps Trending Down

George Crowe — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 21:12:32 +0000

The trend of low inventory and plenty of demand has continued into the new year, with the months supply of homes (based on pended sales) at its lowest level in Marin County since 2006. Basically, there are not a lot of homes coming on the market but there are a plenty of active buyers out there looking. Here’s a look over the last five years:

And here’s a closer look at the downward trend since the peak in 2009:

This trend combined with the amazing weather has made this a good time to bring a listing on in Marin, as we’ve been seeing well-priced homes in popular areas getting multiple offers in many cases. On the flipside this atmosphere can be frustrating for buyers, but we’ll see more inventory heading into Spring.

If you’d like market stats for your particular town or price range just drop me an email at george@sfnorth.com.

Some Dramatic Variations in November Pending Rates

George Crowe — Mon, 12 Dec 2011 23:18:19 +0000

2011 is ending with a continuation of the trend we’ve been talking about all year: low inventory and strong demand in many areas and segments of the market. As you can see for the chart below, some Marin towns are fairing much better than others. Fairfax, Corte Madera, and Greenbrae, for example, are very different markets than Belvedere and Ross.

And pending rates go down dramatically as price range increases. Things are going to slow down overall as always as we head into the holidays, but it’ll be interesting to see what happens after the first of the year. Drop me an email at george@sfnorth.com if you’d like market stats for your area or price segment.

Pending rates for August

George Crowe — Fri, 16 Sep 2011 21:10:45 +0000

Here are the pending rates for August. It’s traditionally a slow month, with people out of town, but there’s still been strong activity in some parts off the county. Corte Madera, Greenbrae, and Fairfax continue to show a lot of demand relative to a small supply.

And here they are by price range. No surprise that the lower end continues to be stronger than the luxury market.

Marin could really use some more good listings

George Crowe — Wed, 13 Jul 2011 00:01:28 +0000

An interesting year continues, with things still a little wacky in the Marin housing market. We’re still seeing multiple offers on some homes, and then there are some listings that are sitting for months. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, one thing that’s pretty glaring is the continued lack of inventory, especially really desirable houses. Looking at the stats for June, the number of residential properties in Marin is the lowest it’s been in any June in at least the last five years. And the months supply of homes based on pending sales is the lowest it’s been in any month since 2007. It’s 45% lower than this time last year, and 17% lower than June 06!

The conventional wisdom says that July and August aren’t the best time to list a home since people are on vacation, but this could be a good time for sellers to throw that thinking out the window and take advantage of the lack of competition.

Things are still moving in Marin

George Crowe — Tue, 14 Jun 2011 23:47:13 +0000

Looking at the Marin County stats across all residential properties and price ranges through last month, pendings (houses going into escrow) ticked back up and inventory remained lower than any May since 2007. With all the doom and gloom in the media lately about the housing market nationwide, I guess we should feel good that Marin is looking like a different story right now.

With relatively low inventory and sales still pretty brisk the months supply is as low as it’s been in quite a while. It was at 3.4 in May, meaning at the current rate of homes going into escrow it would take 3.4 months to exhaust the current supply. That number was 4.9 in May 2010, and 3.1 back at this time in 2006.

As always, if you’d like stats for your particular town or price segment feel free to drop us a line at info@sfnorth.com.

Marin Housing Market Update

George Crowe — Mon, 16 May 2011 22:30:20 +0000

Time to look at the stats now that the April data is in. Inventory ticked up from March as expected, but is still substantially lower than it has been in April the last few years. These charts are for all single family homes in Marin County under 2 millon dollars.

Pendings (the number of homes going into escrow) have remained pretty constant from March, but months supply has ticked up a little because of the increased inventory. The market still feels more active than it has in a while, and we’re hearing the same from other agents, though it’s not across the board. Interest level in properties coming on still varies quite a bit depending on the nature of the home, how realistic the price is, and of course the location.

In 2010 we saw a lot of activity in the early part of the year, and then a decline from the beginning of Summer through the holidays. It’ll be interesting to see if this year things stay more consistent and if this feeling that the Marin market is heating up continues. As always feel free to drop us an email at info@sfnorth.com if you’d like stats for your particular area or price range.

The Return of Multiple Offers?

George Crowe — Tue, 03 May 2011 19:27:49 +0000

There’s a real feeling of renewed activity in the Marin real estate market so far this year, and we’re seeing more multiple offers than we’ve seen in some time. One Kentfield property listed by an agent in our office received eight offers last week, and that’s not an isolated case. Many homes are getting multiple offers, and others have been selling before most buyers even get a chance to view them, either before actually hitting MLS or before the Sunday open house.

Now this is certainly not what’s happening across the board. There are still plenty of homes sitting on the market, and we’re still seeing price reductions in many cases. But in the more popular areas, homes that have a lot of the features most buyers are looking for–and that are priced correctly–are getting a lot of activity. We’re not back to the way things were at the height of the crazy market in 2005, where even less desirable homes were selling fast and for too much money, but we haven’t felt this level of competition for good homes in years. We’ll have to wait and see how much this is function of the time of year and a low supply, or if it keeps up through the rest of 2011.

Here’s a look at the months of inventory based on pending listings for single family homes under $2 million in Marin, meaning how many months it would take to sell all the homes currently on the market based on the rate at which they’re going into escrow. It was down to 3.3 months supply in March, which was 11.4% lower than the supply one year ago, and 43.3% lower than March 2009. The numbers for April will be out soon and I’m guessing they’ll further reflect the increasing activity and relatively lean supply, but I’ll post some charts when they’re available to give a better picture.

If you’d like market info and stats for your specific area of Marin or price range feel free to email me at gcrowe@sfnorth.com.

Moving to Marin? What can you afford to buy?

Ginger Wilcox — Tue, 25 Jan 2011 13:57:05 +0000

If you are considering moving to Marin County, trying to get a feel for what you can afford to buy in the different neighborhoods can be daunting, especially with some of Marin’s steep price tags. Fortunately, not every home in Marin is a multi-million dollar luxury home.

So what can you buy in Marin?

Mill Valley

Many first time home buyers moving from San Francisco start their home search in Mill Valley. It’s charming, close to the bridge, and has a lively downtown area. Its proximity to the city also comes with a much steeper price tag then some of its counterparts. The median list price in Mill Valley is $1,140,346.

90-day stats for Single Family properties in MILL VALLEY, CA as of October 7, 2011
Median List Price:	$1,039,192	Average List Price:	$1,403,263
Total Inventory:	121	Price per Square Foot:	$510
Average Home Size:	2,259	Median Lot Size:	9,136
Average # Beds:	3.44	Average # Baths:	2.75
Homes Absorbed:	8	Newly Listed:	7
Days on Market:	122	Average Age:	51

Fortunately, not every Mill Valley home is over a million dollars. Here are a few Mill Valley homes listed for sale under one million:

Showing properties 1 - 5 of 33. See more city of Mill Valley real estate.
(all data current as of 2/11/2012)

$999,000 : 171 Elm Ave, Mill Valley

3 beds, 2 full baths

Home size: 1,732 sq ft

Lot size: 4,008 sq ft

Listing provided by Fran Donlan, Bradley Real Estate-San Rafael
$999,000 : 226 Amicita Ave, Mill Valley

3 beds, 2 full baths

Home size: 1,232 sq ft

Lot size: 5,271 sq ft

Listing provided by Chelsea Ialeggio, Frank Howard Allen-Tiburon
$998,000 : 386 East Blithedale Ave, Mill Valley

3 beds, 3 full baths

Home size: 1,778 sq ft

Lot size: 6,250 sq ft

Listing provided by Linda Saint Amant, LSA Realty
$995,000 : 155 Hazel Ave, Mill Valley

4 beds, 3 full baths

Home size: 2,587 sq ft

Lot size: 12,502 sq ft

Listing provided by Bruce Berlinger, Bradley Real Estate Mill Valley
$995,000 : 1005 Erica Rd, Mill Valley

4 beds, 2 full, 1 part baths

Home size: 2,316 sq ft

Lot size: 11,543 sq ft

Listing provided by Robert Craig, Decker Bullock Sothebys International Realty

Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.

View all Mill Valley Homes for Sale

San Anselmo

The town of San Anselmo is also known for it’s charming downtown area, proliferation of antique shops, and its proximity to hiking, biking and all of Marin’s fantastic scenery. The commute times in San Anselmo are longer, but your house money will go a lot further as evidenced by the chart below.

90-day stats for Single Family properties in SAN ANSELMO, CA as of October 7, 2011
Median List Price:	$814,835	Average List Price:	$1,059,208
Total Inventory:	59	Price per Square Foot:	$466
Average Home Size:	2,027	Median Lot Size:	10,161
Average # Beds:	3.35	Average # Baths:	2.42
Homes Absorbed:	4	Newly Listed:	4
Days on Market:	111	Average Age:	57

Here are a few San Anselmo homes listed for sale under one million:

Showing properties 1 - 5 of 24. See more city of San Anselmo real estate.
(all data current as of 2/11/2012)

$995,000 : MLS # 21108819 in San Anselmo

4 beds, 2 full baths

Home size: 2,663 sq ft

Lot size: 15,812 sq ft

Listing provided by Saeed Shahabi, Coldwell Banker-Mill Valley
$849,000 : 408 Oakcrest Rd, San Anselmo

3 beds, 1 full bath

Home size: 1,400 sq ft

Lot size: 3.19 ac

Listing provided by John Ball, Coldwell Banker Greenbrae
$849,000 : MLS # 21200725 in San Anselmo

4 beds, 3 full baths

Home size: 2,141 sq ft

Lot size: 5,000 sq ft

Listing provided by Connie Irwin, Pacific Union International
$829,000 : 129 Madrone Ave, San Anselmo

2 beds, 1 full bath

Home size: 1,050 sq ft

Lot size: 7,800 sq ft

Listing provided by Bill Johnson, Frank Howard Allen - Greenbrae
$829,000 : 800 Fawn Dr, San Anselmo

3 beds, 1 full, 1 part baths

Home size: 2,102 sq ft

Lot size: 28,314 sq ft

Listing provided by Karin Narodny, Frank Howard Allen - Greenbrae

Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.

View all San Anselmo Homes for Sale

San Rafael

Moving on to San Rafael, the county seat of Marin, we also see more affordable homes with a median list price of $702,045.

90-day stats for Single Family properties in SAN RAFAEL, CA as of October 7, 2011
Median List Price:	$726,377	Average List Price:	$941,244
Total Inventory:	177	Price per Square Foot:	$389
Average Home Size:	2,145	Median Lot Size:	8,390
Average # Beds:	3.66	Average # Baths:	2.60
Homes Absorbed:	12	Newly Listed:	12
Days on Market:	112	Average Age:	50

Here are a few San Rafael homes listed for sale under one million:

Showing properties 1 - 4 of 95. See more city of San Rafael real estate.
(all data current as of 2/11/2012)

$999,000 : 12 Ninestone Ct, San Rafael

4 beds, 3 full baths

Home size: 2,785 sq ft

Lot size: 1.38 ac

Listing provided by Catherine Munson, LVPMARIN
$989,000 : 27 San Marino Dr, San Rafael

3 beds, 2 full, 1 part baths

Home size: 1,983 sq ft

Lot size: 9,375 sq ft

Listing provided by Stephen Pringle, Alain Pinel Realtors
$925,000 : 227 Spring Grove Ave, San Rafael

5 beds, 3 full baths

Home size: 2,695 sq ft

Lot size: 16,204 sq ft

Listing provided by Deborah Solvason, Bradley Real Estate-San Rafael
$919,000 : 31 Santiago Way, San Rafael

4 beds, 2 full, 1 part baths

Home size: 2,556 sq ft

Lot size: 15,682 sq ft

Listing provided by Sherry Ramzi, Decker Bullock Sothebys International Realty

Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.

View all San Rafael Homes for Sale

Learn More

These are just three of Marin’s cities. If you are interested in moving to Marin, please contact us to get a more in-depth look at where you can afford to buy.

If you are interested in learning more about Marin County price trends, supply and demand and leading indicators, check out our weekly Marin Market Trends Report By City.

“Fix” Your Loan & Cash In To Your Mortgage?

Ginger Wilcox — Wed, 08 Dec 2010 18:59:11 +0000

The new trend in mortgages appears to be “fixing” your loan – moving from adjustable rate mortgages to fixed rate loans.

Mortgage broker Dan Green, Author of The Mortgage Reports Blog says:

Between June-September 2010, Refi Boom participants “went fixed” 19 times out of 20.

That’s an astounding percentage. For several reasons, really.

The first is that the interest rate spread between the 5-year ARM and the 30-year fixed was historically large last quarter, registering 0.81% on average. By comparison, during the 12 months prior, the spread was just 0.66%.

Relative to recent history, therefore, homeowners had a large incentive to take the ARM last quarter, but chose not to.

Here is an interesting chart from Dan:

Image Courtesy of The Mortgage Reports Blog

My friend and fellow real estate agent in Northern Virginia wrote about it on her blog, “Getting Off the Horse Before She Bucks You.”

Heather says:

The other interesting thing from the third quarter numbers is that 33% of homeowners who refinanced brought money to the table to do a “cash-in” refinance, and effectively bought more equity in their homes. That’s the second highest “cash-in” quarter since Freddie Mac began keeping records in 1985.

So, people are actually putting money into their homes. They are looking for stability. And, there is seems that would show some confidence in the real estate market long term. These actions seem to echo the new study by Trulia and RealtyTrac which found that 58% of Americans believe the real estate market will recover after 2012.

Oddly enough, the study also showed 48% of people would be willing to walk away from their homes if they were under water, up from 41% in years past. There is less of a stigma against those who choose to walk away because it makes financial sense.

So are home buyers looking at the home buying process as more of a business decision than in the past? Not necessarily, because their desire for certainty does not necessarily make financial sense. Perhaps what we are seeing is damage mitigation – a cutting of losses from past mistakes with a desire to avert risks in the future.

Regardless, it looks like there is a glimmer of optimism among Americans about the future of the real estate market.

Marin Market Update Part 2 – Now for the Nitty Gritty

George Crowe — Thu, 18 Nov 2010 00:46:44 +0000

While it’s interesting to look at trends in the county overall, you get a much more useful picture when you get more specific about just exactly what sort of property you’re talking about. Continuing with some more market stats, we can see there continues to be a dramatic disparity between areas and price segments in Marin County.

Here’s a look at the percentages of Marin properties that entered escrow the last two months by city/town. Convention says these percentages determine the state of the market in that segment, for example 10% or below is considered a strong buyer’s market, while 31%-35% represents a balanced market. Those designations are somewhat arbitrary, but they are useful. Towns like Corte Madera, Fairfax, and Greenbrae remain relatively active, with the supply of homes and demand from buyers somewhat balanced, while buyers in Belvedere and Kentfield are in a much stronger bargaining position since there is so much inventory compared to the number of sales happening.

And here’s a look at activity by price range, where we continue to see a big difference between the entry level segment and higher end luxury homes. For example, only 1 of the 48 listings priced at $5,000,000 or more went into escrow in October, while more than a third of those listed at $500,000 or below found buyers. This is why there has been some stability in prices in the lower ranges, while luxury properties continue to take a hit.

These stats bear out what we’re experiencing anecdotally in the lower price segments. Accurately priced, well prepared homes in desirable areas are selling, and the inventory is drying up as we head into the holidays. This may be a tough time to sell that $8,000,000 mansion in Belvedere, but maybe not such a bad time to sell a charming $800,000 home in San Anselmo or Fairfax.