Archive for the ‘Marin Market Trends’ Category
2011 is ending with a continuation of the trend we’ve been talking about all year: low inventory and strong demand in many areas and segments of the market. As you can see for the chart below, some Marin towns are fairing much better than others. Fairfax, Corte Madera, and Greenbrae, for example, are very different markets than Belvedere and Ross.
And pending rates go down dramatically as price range increases. Things are going to slow down overall as always as we head into the holidays, but it’ll be interesting to see what happens after the first of the year. Drop me an email at george@sfnorth.com if you’d like market stats for your area or price segment.
Here are the pending rates for August. It’s traditionally a slow month, with people out of town, but there’s still been strong activity in some parts off the county. Corte Madera, Greenbrae, and Fairfax continue to show a lot of demand relative to a small supply.
And here they are by price range. No surprise that the lower end continues to be stronger than the luxury market.
An interesting year continues, with things still a little wacky in the Marin housing market. We’re still seeing multiple offers on some homes, and then there are some listings that are sitting for months. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, one thing that’s pretty glaring is the continued lack of inventory, especially really desirable houses. Looking at the stats for June, the number of residential properties in Marin is the lowest it’s been in any June in at least the last five years. And the months supply of homes based on pending sales is the lowest it’s been in any month since 2007. It’s 45% lower than this time last year, and 17% lower than June 06!
The conventional wisdom says that July and August aren’t the best time to list a home since people are on vacation, but this could be a good time for sellers to throw that thinking out the window and take advantage of the lack of competition.
Looking at the Marin County stats across all residential properties and price ranges through last month, pendings (houses going into escrow) ticked back up and inventory remained lower than any May since 2007. With all the doom and gloom in the media lately about the housing market nationwide, I guess we should feel good that Marin is looking like a different story right now.
With relatively low inventory and sales still pretty brisk the months supply is as low as it’s been in quite a while. It was at 3.4 in May, meaning at the current rate of homes going into escrow it would take 3.4 months to exhaust the current supply. That number was 4.9 in May 2010, and 3.1 back at this time in 2006.
As always, if you’d like stats for your particular town or price segment feel free to drop us a line at info@sfnorth.com.
Time to look at the stats now that the April data is in. Inventory ticked up from March as expected, but is still substantially lower than it has been in April the last few years. These charts are for all single family homes in Marin County under 2 millon dollars.
Pendings (the number of homes going into escrow) have remained pretty constant from March, but months supply has ticked up a little because of the increased inventory. The market still feels more active than it has in a while, and we’re hearing the same from other agents, though it’s not across the board. Interest level in properties coming on still varies quite a bit depending on the nature of the home, how realistic the price is, and of course the location.
In 2010 we saw a lot of activity in the early part of the year, and then a decline from the beginning of Summer through the holidays. It’ll be interesting to see if this year things stay more consistent and if this feeling that the Marin market is heating up continues. As always feel free to drop us an email at info@sfnorth.com if you’d like stats for your particular area or price range.
There’s a real feeling of renewed activity in the Marin real estate market so far this year, and we’re seeing more multiple offers than we’ve seen in some time. One Kentfield property listed by an agent in our office received eight offers last week, and that’s not an isolated case. Many homes are getting multiple offers, and others have been selling before most buyers even get a chance to view them, either before actually hitting MLS or before the Sunday open house.
Now this is certainly not what’s happening across the board. There are still plenty of homes sitting on the market, and we’re still seeing price reductions in many cases. But in the more popular areas, homes that have a lot of the features most buyers are looking for–and that are priced correctly–are getting a lot of activity. We’re not back to the way things were at the height of the crazy market in 2005, where even less desirable homes were selling fast and for too much money, but we haven’t felt this level of competition for good homes in years. We’ll have to wait and see how much this is function of the time of year and a low supply, or if it keeps up through the rest of 2011.
Here’s a look at the months of inventory based on pending listings for single family homes under $2 million in Marin, meaning how many months it would take to sell all the homes currently on the market based on the rate at which they’re going into escrow. It was down to 3.3 months supply in March, which was 11.4% lower than the supply one year ago, and 43.3% lower than March 2009. The numbers for April will be out soon and I’m guessing they’ll further reflect the increasing activity and relatively lean supply, but I’ll post some charts when they’re available to give a better picture.
If you’d like market info and stats for your specific area of Marin or price range feel free to email me at gcrowe@sfnorth.com.
If you are considering moving to Marin County, trying to get a feel for what you can afford to buy in the different neighborhoods can be daunting, especially with some of Marin’s steep price tags. Fortunately, not every home in Marin is a multi-million dollar luxury home.
So what can you buy in Marin?
Mill Valley
Many first time home buyers moving from San Francisco start their home search in Mill Valley. It’s charming, close to the bridge, and has a lively downtown area. Its proximity to the city also comes with a much steeper price tag then some of its counterparts. The median list price in Mill Valley is $1,140,346.
| 90-day stats for Single Family properties in MILL VALLEY, CA as of October 7, 2011 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Median List Price: | $1,039,192 | Average List Price: | $1,403,263 |
| Total Inventory: | 121 | Price per Square Foot: | $510 |
| Average Home Size: | 2,259 | Median Lot Size: | 9,136 |
| Average # Beds: | 3.44 | Average # Baths: | 2.75 |
| Homes Absorbed: | 8 | Newly Listed: | 7 |
| Days on Market: | 122 | Average Age: | 51 |
Fortunately, not every Mill Valley home is over a million dollars. Here are a few Mill Valley homes listed for sale under one million:
Showing properties
1 - 5 of 34.
See more city of Mill Valley real estate.
(all data current as of
2/9/2012)
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$999,000 : MLS # 21201090 in Mill Valley3 beds, 2 full baths
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$999,000 : 226 Amicita Ave, Mill Valley3 beds, 2 full baths
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$998,000 : 386 East Blithedale Ave, Mill Valley3 beds, 3 full baths
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$995,000 : 155 Hazel Ave, Mill Valley4 beds, 3 full baths
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$995,000 : 1005 Erica Rd, Mill Valley4 beds, 2 full, 1 part baths
Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.
View all Mill Valley Homes for Sale
San Anselmo
The town of San Anselmo is also known for it’s charming downtown area, proliferation of antique shops, and its proximity to hiking, biking and all of Marin’s fantastic scenery. The commute times in San Anselmo are longer, but your house money will go a lot further as evidenced by the chart below.
| 90-day stats for Single Family properties in SAN ANSELMO, CA as of October 7, 2011 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Median List Price: | $814,835 | Average List Price: | $1,059,208 |
| Total Inventory: | 59 | Price per Square Foot: | $466 |
| Average Home Size: | 2,027 | Median Lot Size: | 10,161 |
| Average # Beds: | 3.35 | Average # Baths: | 2.42 |
| Homes Absorbed: | 4 | Newly Listed: | 4 |
| Days on Market: | 111 | Average Age: | 57 |
Here are a few San Anselmo homes listed for sale under one million:
Showing properties
1 - 5 of 25.
See more city of San Anselmo real estate.
(all data current as of
2/9/2012)
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$995,000 : MLS # 21108819 in San Anselmo4 beds, 2 full baths
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$849,000 : 408 Oakcrest Rd, San Anselmo3 beds, 1 full bath
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$849,000 : MLS # 21200725 in San Anselmo4 beds, 3 full baths
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$829,000 : 129 Madrone Ave, San Anselmo2 beds, 1 full bath
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$829,000 : 800 Fawn Dr, San Anselmo3 beds, 1 full, 1 part baths
Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.
View all San Anselmo Homes for Sale
San Rafael
Moving on to San Rafael, the county seat of Marin, we also see more affordable homes with a median list price of $702,045.
| 90-day stats for Single Family properties in SAN RAFAEL, CA as of October 7, 2011 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Median List Price: | $726,377 | Average List Price: | $941,244 |
| Total Inventory: | 177 | Price per Square Foot: | $389 |
| Average Home Size: | 2,145 | Median Lot Size: | 8,390 |
| Average # Beds: | 3.66 | Average # Baths: | 2.60 |
| Homes Absorbed: | 12 | Newly Listed: | 12 |
| Days on Market: | 112 | Average Age: | 50 |
Here are a few San Rafael homes listed for sale under one million:
Showing properties
1 - 4 of 95.
See more city of San Rafael real estate.
(all data current as of
2/9/2012)
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$999,000 : 12 Ninestone Ct, San Rafael4 beds, 3 full baths
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$989,000 : 27 San Marino Dr, San Rafael3 beds, 2 full, 1 part baths
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$925,000 : 227 Spring Grove Ave, San Rafael5 beds, 3 full baths
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$919,000 : 31 Santiago Way, San Rafael4 beds, 2 full, 1 part baths
Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.
View all San Rafael Homes for Sale
Learn More
These are just three of Marin’s cities. If you are interested in moving to Marin, please contact us to get a more in-depth look at where you can afford to buy.
If you are interested in learning more about Marin County price trends, supply and demand and leading indicators, check out our weekly Marin Market Trends Report By City.
The new trend in mortgages appears to be “fixing” your loan – moving from adjustable rate mortgages to fixed rate loans.
Mortgage broker Dan Green, Author of The Mortgage Reports Blog says:
Between June-September 2010, Refi Boom participants “went fixed” 19 times out of 20.
That’s an astounding percentage. For several reasons, really.
The first is that the interest rate spread between the 5-year ARM and the 30-year fixed was historically large last quarter, registering 0.81% on average. By comparison, during the 12 months prior, the spread was just 0.66%.
Relative to recent history, therefore, homeowners had a large incentive to take the ARM last quarter, but chose not to.
Here is an interesting chart from Dan:
Image Courtesy of The Mortgage Reports Blog
My friend and fellow real estate agent in Northern Virginia wrote about it on her blog, “Getting Off the Horse Before She Bucks You.”
Heather says:
The other interesting thing from the third quarter numbers is that 33% of homeowners who refinanced brought money to the table to do a “cash-in” refinance, and effectively bought more equity in their homes. That’s the second highest “cash-in” quarter since Freddie Mac began keeping records in 1985.
So, people are actually putting money into their homes. They are looking for stability. And, there is seems that would show some confidence in the real estate market long term. These actions seem to echo the new study by Trulia and RealtyTrac which found that 58% of Americans believe the real estate market will recover after 2012.
Oddly enough, the study also showed 48% of people would be willing to walk away from their homes if they were under water, up from 41% in years past. There is less of a stigma against those who choose to walk away because it makes financial sense.
So are home buyers looking at the home buying process as more of a business decision than in the past? Not necessarily, because their desire for certainty does not necessarily make financial sense. Perhaps what we are seeing is damage mitigation – a cutting of losses from past mistakes with a desire to avert risks in the future.
Regardless, it looks like there is a glimmer of optimism among Americans about the future of the real estate market.
While it’s interesting to look at trends in the county overall, you get a much more useful picture when you get more specific about just exactly what sort of property you’re talking about. Continuing with some more market stats, we can see there continues to be a dramatic disparity between areas and price segments in Marin County.
Here’s a look at the percentages of Marin properties that entered escrow the last two months by city/town. Convention says these percentages determine the state of the market in that segment, for example 10% or below is considered a strong buyer’s market, while 31%-35% represents a balanced market. Those designations are somewhat arbitrary, but they are useful. Towns like Corte Madera, Fairfax, and Greenbrae remain relatively active, with the supply of homes and demand from buyers somewhat balanced, while buyers in Belvedere and Kentfield are in a much stronger bargaining position since there is so much inventory compared to the number of sales happening.
And here’s a look at activity by price range, where we continue to see a big difference between the entry level segment and higher end luxury homes. For example, only 1 of the 48 listings priced at $5,000,000 or more went into escrow in October, while more than a third of those listed at $500,000 or below found buyers. This is why there has been some stability in prices in the lower ranges, while luxury properties continue to take a hit.
These stats bear out what we’re experiencing anecdotally in the lower price segments. Accurately priced, well prepared homes in desirable areas are selling, and the inventory is drying up as we head into the holidays. This may be a tough time to sell that $8,000,000 mansion in Belvedere, but maybe not such a bad time to sell a charming $800,000 home in San Anselmo or Fairfax.
With the holiday season approaching it’s a good time to take a look at what’s happening with the housing market in Marin County.
It was a pretty slow summer, but as you’ll see in the chart below there was a nice uptick in homes entering escrow in October, the most new pendings since the little run of activity that peaked in April. Inventory is ticking down and we would expect it to drop off dramatically in November and bottom out in December as it typically does as homes sell without being replaced by new inventory and sellers pull their properties off the market for the Holidays.
We saw a bit of a glut of inventory overall through the summer, but as you can see from this chart of months supply based on pending sales, supply and demand are closing. And this fits with what we’re seeing, as there have been few homes coming on the market the last several weeks, while buyers are still buying. Inventory could get pretty slim over the winter, which could be a good argument for sellers to buck the conventional wisdom that says you should wait for spring to bring your home on. A desirable, well-priced home can attract a lot of attention in a period with very little competition.
And here’s a look at price in dollars per square foot. I’ve limited it to homes under $3 million, since higher end luxury properties tend to skew the numbers and have been more volatile.
As you can see, Marin residential properties (under $3 million) on average have been bouncing along between about $400 and $440 per square foot for a while now. In fact if we look at a five year graph you can see the big drop in 2008, but then relative stability over the last two years.
